State-Level Variation in US Asylum Grant Rates
Where an asylum case is heard shapes its odds. Grouping every US immigration court by the state it sits in and pooling their asylum merits decisions from FY2015 to FY2025, the case-weighted grant rate ranges from 65.5% in New York down to 25.8% in Nebraska - a 39.7-percentage-point spread across 29 states with at least 1,000 asylum decisions. The national rate across these states is 48.2%.
Not legal advice. These are historical statistical aggregates from DOJ EOIR data, not a prediction for any individual case. Outcomes depend on facts specific to each case: consult a licensed immigration attorney or accredited representative for guidance on your situation.
Asylum grant rate by state
| State | Courts | Asylum decisions | Grant rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 6 | 125,453 | 65.5% |
| Hawaii | 1 | 2,075 | 63.8% |
| Illinois | 1 | 20,057 | 61.5% |
| Utah | 1 | 7,627 | 55.9% |
| California | 11 | 140,998 | 55.4% |
| Pennsylvania | 1 | 10,681 | 55.4% |
| Maryland | 2 | 26,474 | 53.7% |
| Massachusetts | 3 | 20,780 | 52.4% |
| Ohio | 1 | 8,727 | 49.6% |
| Colorado | 2 | 13,272 | 49.2% |
| Virginia | 3 | 33,515 | 48.3% |
| Nevada | 1 | 6,213 | 46% |
| Oregon | 2 | 5,960 | 43.8% |
| New Jersey | 2 | 22,322 | 43.6% |
| Michigan | 1 | 5,633 | 42% |
| Tennessee | 1 | 10,985 | 40.3% |
| Connecticut | 1 | 5,342 | 37.6% |
| Florida | 3 | 52,709 | 37.5% |
| Minnesota | 1 | 8,212 | 37.3% |
| Missouri | 1 | 4,834 | 36.1% |
| Washington | 2 | 20,087 | 35.8% |
| Texas | 13 | 100,260 | 34.7% |
| North Carolina | 1 | 11,503 | 34.6% |
| Arizona | 4 | 15,204 | 32.7% |
| Georgia | 3 | 16,760 | 30.9% |
| Louisiana | 3 | 19,687 | 29.2% |
| New Mexico | 1 | 3,225 | 28.2% |
| Indiana | 1 | 1,709 | 25.9% |
| Nebraska | 1 | 4,960 | 25.8% |
What drives the gap
State-level differences are not evidence that one state's judges are "fairer" than another's. The pooled rate reflects the mix of nationalities filing in each state, the share of applicants with legal representation, the proportion of cases heard in detained settings, and the individual judges assigned - all of which vary by region. States whose dockets are dominated by detained, high-volume border courts tend to show lower grant rates than states whose courts hear a larger share of represented, affirmative claims. The court-by-court and judge-by-judge pages on this site show the variance that the state average smooths over.
These figures are descriptive summaries of past decisions, not predictions. An individual case turns on its own facts, the relief sought, the evidence of country conditions, and whether the applicant is represented.
Source: DOJ Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) - FOIA Case Data Asylum (I-589) merits decisions by court, FY2015–2025 · 2026